A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
